How Will The Euro Debt Crisis Affect Property Prices?

Many factors have led to the Euro Debt Crisis. First, the US economy remains sluggish, with unemployment rates hovering above 9.1% as of third quarter of 2011. Demand for goods and services remain at an all-time low.

Across the Atlantic, Iceland’s entire banking system collapsed in 2008. The Icelandic recession then sparked a cascade of financial crises that would rock the economies of Ireland, Portugal and, most especially, Greece two years later.

The problem of these economies is that their debts have ballooned to such high levels, their governments couldn’t even pay the interest, much less the principal. Credit default loomed as an inevitable bitter solution.

Sounding the alarm

Fortunately for Ireland, Portugal and Greece, they all belong to a formidable economic block known as the Eurozone. Soon after these countries’ governments sounded the alarm, the EU and the IMF came to their aid with a bail-out package.

Ireland received as much as 85 billion euros to rescue its ailing banks.

Portugal’s economy went on the verge of bankruptcy because of excessive government spending and risky debt creation. These events were further worsened by credit rating agencies’ speculations, which downgraded Lisbon’s rating overnight. The EU and the IMF shelled out 78 billion euros to bail Portugal out of this crisis.

Greek crisis

The case with Greece is much more complicated. Like Portugal, massive budget deficit and failing to pay its debts almost led to a credit default. Athens was given a bailout package amounting to 110 billion euros in 2010. In 2011, a second bailout package of 109 billion euros has been laid out.

The loans came with a heavy price. Greece must now adopt a number of harsh austerity measures to improve its market outlook. Job cuts and high taxes suddenly became the burden of every Greek. Despite all these, there is still no guarantee that Greece will not default in the end.

Ireland and Portugal are still reeling from their credit downgrade.

But there is a silver lining in all of these events.

Property prices: the silver lining

With many businesses closing shop and home rentals going down, property prices have dropped almost instantly. If there is ever a good opportunity for foreign investors to come in, now is the perfect time.

The price of one ritzy villa – complete with swimming pool, sauna, and private gym – in a prime residence area Portugal has been cut by as much as 57%. In fact, property in many areas of Europe has become so affordable, a London-based development and property search company has reported a ten-fold increase in property inquiries in Italy alone.

In Windsor, private equity investor David Hammond bought four properties in Portugal because the prices were so cheap and the properties in such good condition, he just couldn’t resist. He added that he would have had to pay twice as much for the same property had he bought them before the recession.

This has become the trend all over Europe.

Where to buy

Of course, the great European bargain doesn’t come without hassle. The governments of Greece, Portugal and Italy have either increased their property taxes or revised foreign ownership laws, in response to the real estate rush.

In Portugal, however, the process of owning a property has been streamlined to better meet the demands of a hungry market. The rules are fairly straightforward, and the fees are clearly listed down before a prospective buyer starts shopping for real estate.

General consensus among estate agents says that a Portugal property is the best value for money. Not only are they more affordable than those in other European countries, the properties are also often found in places with stunning beauty such as in the Silver Coast and in Algarve.

What’s Next, North or South?

On a day when you hear about the worlds largest bank CITI Group losing $5 Billion and cutting 4,000 jobs world wide, you might expect markets to be down severely. You might also have expected the FTSE to stumble on the news that RBS is preparing a rights issue to shore up its balance sheet. However, apart from some early nervousness on Friday, the UKs benchmark index managed to close the week up 3.2%. The CAC & DAX both managed 4.3%.

The worse is behind us argument continued to gather pace as evidenced by RBS share price actually rising on the day of the rights issue announcement. Investors had been speculating for months that RBS would be taking this step and in some ways the eventual announcement relieved some of the pressure on the UK banking sector. More than anything markets hate indecision and traders seem buoyed by the hope of an eventual end point to the liquidity crisis.

A significant catalyst last week was some positive earnings announcements from some heavy hitting US companies; Intel, Coca Cola, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Google and IBM all surprised to the upside. According to Bloomberg, profits have slumped 26% on average from the companies releasing results so far with the financial sector being the worst hit. However, this was largely expected to be the case, and share prices have adjusted to price in consensus estimates. One important question is whether US companies have truly under promised and over delivered, or if investors are just fearful of missing out on a rally.

On the currency markets, the Pound and Dollar made up lost ground lost after figures showed Eurozone inflation hitting a 16-year high. Chinese CPI was also red hot with staples such as soyabeans and rice continuing to rise. The price of rice has doubled since August 2007 while sugar and wheat have retreated from recent highs. The king of commodities, oil, continues to make record highs and until this market significantly retreats, inflation projections will remain high. This will put further pressure on central banks such as The Bank Of England, which has to balance fighting inflation with easing the liquidity crisis in the credit markets.

Inter bank lending rates have remained stubbornly high since the summer, with the actual cost of lending being a quarter point higher than the official LIBOR rate. The fact that The Bank Of Englands recent loan action was over subscribed by three times the amount tells its own story. With little movement on LIBOR or mortgage fees so far, the next move could put further pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates.

Traders foresees that while the worst may or may not be behind us, what is probable is that it won’t be plain sailing from here in either direction. There may still be some pull backs along the way even if March turns out to be the low point of this credit crunch for the FTSE. A one touch with the trigger set to 5900 could return 50% over the next 17 days.

Prerequisites in Stocks Investing

Some people think that investing in stocks is as easy as going to a 7-eleven convenience store and buying what you want. However, in my opinion, to be able to become successful in investing in stocks you need to have a proper knowledge and proper discipline. Based on my own experience, below are the 7 prerequisites that you need to do before venturing in stocks investing:

1. Put your finances in order

I remember one of my friend asked me, “How can I invest in that “stock” thing that you’ve mentioned? I’m really interested in trading stocks to earn money. But first, can you lend me some money because I used up my salary in buying a new netbook and I need to pay my electricity bill …”

Imagine! How can someone think of investing in stocks when he can’t even prioritize his expenses. People who invest in stocks without proper financial plan will either end up more broke or in jail. Reason is because they are the one that gets emotional and panic during the bear market and loses money. Also beware of turning the stock market into online casino as it can be addicting and like any gambling will result to losses. If you’re in debt and you’re living hand to mouth, you should first make a budget plan and payment plan to reduce/eliminate your debt by prioritizing expenses and cost cutting. Only once you are out of chaos then you can proceed to the next step.

2. Save money consistently and religiously

Saving money is actually a co-requisite and/or integrated to your debt-payment and budget plan mentioned in number 1. The “Pay Yourself First” mantra that you’ve always heard is true and effective. And when I say “save money religiously”, I literally mean you need to do it as if it is a mortal sin not to save money. Make frugality a habit and you are guaranteed of achieving the wealth that you have been dreaming of. In any investment, money is needed either for capital or perhaps for your personal needs while waiting for the result of your venture so there’s no such thing as starting business at absolute zero capital. (or maybe there is … in Neverland).

3. Create an Emergency Fund

Emergency Fund is a reserved money that you can use in case of emergency like accident, sickness, death, losing your job, or anything that you can define as emergency. I’m not trying to scare you but things like these are not impossible to occur.

Stock investing should be long term and so I always tell my friends to invest only spare money or money that you will not need in the near future. To be more objective, you can invest money that you will not need in the next 5-10 years or even longer. If you have an emergency fund, this will serve as your cushion to protect you during emergency without forcing you to sell your stocks at a loss. Having this fund will also keep your sanity no matter what happen to the market be it bear, bull, pig or any animal type of market. Here in Korea, it is common to hear news about people committing suicide during the 2008 financial crisis so keep this step a must. In my case, I put up an emergency fund that is equal to my annual expenses. Consensus dictates at least 6 months worth of your living expenses.

4. Study about Stocks and Financial Management

There are a lot of technical words or trading jargon in the stock market world and it is important to learn it to avoid mistakes. In my history of stock investing, the first and only loss I incurred is when I bought MEG without understanding about warrants. In addition, you need to be savvy in personal finance management since stock investing is just part of your portfolio. As a golden rule in personal finance, don’t invest everything in stocks. You should consider bonds, money market, mutual funds, real estates and etc as other instruments of diversification and be the expert yourself in optimizing your risk and return.

5. Know the listed companies

The common mistake of investors is investing in ticker symbols and their corresponding charts. They didn’t even know what is the business of those companies. (Heck, they didn’t even know what the ticker symbol stands for!). I tried to study technical analysis before but all I see was unpredictable trend of stock price. Maybe I was wrong, but relying solely on charts for stock picking are nothing but a logical fallacy wherein all people say “this shit is expensive and precious so you should buy it”.

If you go back to the definition of stocks, stocks are pieces of a business. If this is the case, it is only rational to know whether the stocks you’re buying is of the companies that are profitable and well manage. However, some people only want to earn big time without exerting effort and so engaged to the “Bigger Fool’s Game” in stock market. You could earn from this game but one day you will become the Biggest Fool of them all.

How to learn these companies? Visit the company websites or download and read the latest financial statement. Yes I know that it is time consuming but nothing is free in this world. Also, you don’t need to read the financial statement from cover to cover but focus on the operation and financial discussion. In fact, in my analysis, only 5% of these hundred pages are only needed to be able to get the full grasp of the company situation. I will discuss about financial statement in my future post.

6. Practice first without using money

If you’ve done the first 5 steps, then you are almost there. However, just like in sports you need to do some practice first before the actual event. What I did during that time is I do dummy trading without money using the PSE Stock Trading Game. This is free and all you have to do is to sign-up and start trading with virtual money worth PHP 1Million (again, it is just a dummy so don’t get carried away).

The point of this exercise is to acclimatize yourself in trading without the risk of losing money. It is a vital step for me that I integrated with Step 4. Interestingly, after more than 1 year when I stop playing the game, when I check again my dummy trading account, my portfolio earns more than my actual portfolio. This prove that investing in long term without emotional intervention is more profitable technique than daily monitoring the market … it was a lesson learned.

7. Open a trading account

The final step is to open your trading account. My suggestion is to choose only the brokerage that has a tie up with your bank. This will make your fund transfer more convenient and also it is less risky than the fly-by-night brokerage company. If you have questions about opening a trading account feel free to ask questions or visit the website of your brokerage company.

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